• Client: Southeast Conference
  • Date: Sep 2018
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Southeast Alaska has been experiencing rough economic times, but there are bright points in the region. While the state sector has struggled, we have seen sustained growth in the tourism industry, and there are indications the economy is beginning to stabilize.Dramatic cuts reduced state sector employment in the region by 15% since 2012, a loss of 850 jobs, and an estimated $50 million in lost annual wages. By comparison, the rest of the state experienced a 7.5% decline in state jobs during the same period. State spending cuts have curtailed growth in other industries, especially construction.The regional population declined for the third year in a row, by a combined 1,600 people. About half the population loss consisted of children and 20-somethings leaving Juneau, the community most impacted by cuts in state employment. The seafood industry has been struggling. A poor 2016 harvest led to the loss of 500 jobs; and while the 2017 harvest was on par with 10-year averages, neither the jobs nor the Chinook returned. Chinook harvest levels are the lowest on record. Additionally, the fishing industry is facing the potential impacts of the president’s seafood tariffs. The ferry system continues to face significant cuts, reducing ridership by 20% in the last three years, and bringing 35% fewer visitors to the region. Layoffs were announced at the Ketchikan shipyard, and Ocean Beauty is permanently closing its Petersburg cannery. Just under half of regional business leaders called the Southeast business climate “poor" or “very poor” in 2018, up from 29% in 2015. But not all indicators are bad. There were 380 more jobs in 2017 than in 2016, and we are less than 400 jobs below peak employment levels of 2013. This is almost entirely thanks to massive growth in tourism – specifically cruise ship tourism. Between 2010 and 2019, cruise passenger numbers are projected to increase by 50%, with 1.31 million cruise visitors expected to sightsee here in 2019. Jobs in the visitor industry increased by nearly 2,000 year-round equivalent workers since 2010, and visitors to Southeast spent $65 million here last year. Jobs are poised to expand in health-related fields. Mining and tribal government employment grew last year. Oil prices are improving, and there is hope that this, combined with a permanent fund restructure, will stabilize the government sector.
Looking forward, Southeast Alaskans remain optimistic about the future, with two-thirds of Southeast Alaska business leaders expecting their prospects to be positive or to improve in 2019.

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